Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/01/2014 -- We expect the Kazakh grain sector to outperform, especially as Kazakhstan sees more export opportunities to Central Asia and China. We expect limited growth for the livestock and dairy sectors, as export potential for both industries will remain limited. Only domestic demand, which we expect to be strong, could partially encourage domestic production. That said, cheap imports from Russia could put local growers at a disadvantage. We have not identified any major public company operating in the sector that we would highlight.
- Wheat production to 2016/17: -9.1% to 19.1mn tonnes. Efforts to diversify into oilseeds and other field crops and little potential for a repeat of the perfect conditions of 2011/12 will see production fall over our five-year forecast period.
- Cheese consumption growth to 2017: 44.5% to 82,500 tonnes. This will come from increased demand for value-added dairy products on the back of accelerating urbanisation and improvements in infrastructure.
- Beef production growth to 2016/17: 35.7% to 576,700 tonnes. The comprehensive overhaul of the beef herd continues apace as imported breeding stocks improve quality.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 5.5%, up from 5.4% in 2013.
- 2014 average consumer price inflation: 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from 5.5% y-o-y in 2013.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 22.9% y-o-y increase to US$8.5bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 9.8% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.
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We have revised up our forecast for Kazakh wheat production to 16.5mn tonnes in 2013/14, compared with 15.0mn tonnes earlier, in line with the latest official estimates. However, we raise concerns over potential deterioration in the quality of the crop. Even though 92.0% of the wheat collected so far is of high quality, local industry sources fear that the quality could fall further as the harvesting campaign shifts to the northern part of the country. Kazakhstan has already harvested 7.5m tonnes of wheat from 40% of the sown area with yields at 1.3tonnes/hectare, up from 0.8tonnes/hectare in 2012/13. As of September last season, more than 80% of the sown area had been harvested.
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