Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/20/2015 -- Bad weather right at the point of harvest has significantly reduced the prospects for the 2014/15 wheat crop. Quality has been affected and export earnings as well as volumes are likely to be compromised as a result. Other grains have fared better and we do not foresee any problems with local availability of animal feed. Poultry, pork and beef farmers continue to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the government's plans to modernise the agricultural sector and we see strong lon g - term growth potential for the livestock industry. The dairy segment will demand more significant structural reforms and substantial investment in processing and storage infrastructure for us to regard it with similar optimism.

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Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 43.4% to 14.1mn tonnes . This growth will be almost entirely due to base effects. Production will be held up by improving yields, as acreages are set to decline as subsidies incentivise sowings of other field crops and prices are expected to flatline.

- Milk consumption growth to 2018: 18.5% to 5.2mn tonnes. This will be a result of increased demand from a growing population, with manufacturers of flavoured milks likely to be among the main beneficiaries.

- 2015 real GDP growth: 5.0%, up from 4.3% in 2014; forecast to grow at an average rate of 5.3% from 2013 to 2018.

- 2015 average consumer price inflation: 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from 8.3% y-o-y in 2014.

- BMI U niverse A gribusiness M arket V alue : 11.0% y-o-y increase to USD7.0 bn in 2013/14, forecast to grow by an average 4.8% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

Industry Developments

Winter conditions came early to northern Kazakhstan as snow fell on crops awaiting harvest in mid-October, following weeks of heavy rain. This has led local analysts to raise concerns over the quantity and quality of the harvest with much of the crop now apparently only...

The Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.

- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Kazakhstan.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

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