Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/02/2015 -- Lithuania's mobile market recorded negative growth in 2013 and the for first nine months of 2014, with incumbent Omnitel finally ceding its lead position to Tele2 . The mobile market is saturated and as operators move customers to more valuable postpaid plans, so large numbers of inactive prepaid accounts are being eliminated. In Omnitel's case, this has yielded stronger ARPU fig ures and uncovered underlying positive ARP U growth that had previously n o t been visible. Consumers have become used to very low monthly mobil e bills, however. And, despite an uptick in mobile data consumption, we expect revenues to continue declining over the next five years. The pressure will be on operators t o develop advanced new products and services. Not all players will survive the medium term and news that the Bit? group is being prepared for sale comes as no surprise.

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Key Data

- Blended mobile ARPU reached LTL17 at the end of 2014 and we do not project much in the way of recovery until 2018. Nevertheless, the downward trend has stabilised after years of MTR cuts and price competition.
- The increased emphasis on postpaid subscriptions will begin to benefit 3G and 4G mobile service revenues. BMI forecasts 3G/4G subscriptions to grow from 1.827mn in 2014 to 2.158mn by 2018 as new handsets and connected devices increasingly come 3G/4G-enabled.
- At the same time, demand for traditional fixed broadband connections (principally fibre and fixed wireless connections) will continue trending upwards, helping total broadband subscriptions to rise from 1.233mn in 2014 to 1.472mn by 2018.

Key Trends & Developments

Long overdue consolidation appears to be on the cards in Lithuania's staid electronic communications services market. Minor mobile network operator Bit? could be sold to a larger player early in 2015 as majority shareholder Mid Europa Partners has indicated a desire to sell the Bit? group, which includes a towers company and an MVNO...

The Lithuania Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Lithuania's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Lithuania Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Lithuania.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Lithuania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Lithuanian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Lithuania's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Lithuania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

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