Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/16/2013 -- The Malaysian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Malaysia's economic outlook of limited room for additional fiscal stimulus by the government.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Malaysian retail market while minimising investment risk, and explores the impact of deteriorating global economic conditions on the Malaysian consumer as well as on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Malaysian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Malaysian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 44% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 43%. Malaysia comes third (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms slightly for risk.

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Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms. Sales are forecast to increase by 56.1% between 2013 and 2017, from US$15.82bn to US$24.71bn as a growing affluent middle- and upper-income consumer base embraces the concept. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the possible easing of hypermarket regulations.

Over the past quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- Malaysia's GDP print showed private consumption remained resilient in Q412 and that the pace of the economic recovery picked up. However, our view remains that the recent uptick in economic data from China is unlikely to last and that the country's structural problems are likely to resurface towards the end of the year. We also expect cooling money supply growth to cap economic growth at 4.6% in 2013.
- Overall, the outlook for domestic demand remains highly positive, in our view, and we expect private consumption to expand at a robust pace of around 6.0% in 2013. Data on outstanding credit card balances suggest that the deleveraging of consumer debt since the beginning of 2011 may have run its course.

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