Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/15/2013 -- Core Views

We have remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook, forecasting real GDP growth to average 4.0% between 2013 and 2022 on the back of Mexico's booming manufacturing sector, increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics.

That said, we believe that the ability for Mexico to reverse its severe macroeconomic imbalances and generate the robust growth necessary to propel it to 'developed market' status still hinges on the passage of substantive energy sector reform.

Though the Mexican peso will remain subject to substantial global market volatility, we expect the unit to appreciate modestly over the coming 12 months, maintaining our forecast for the peso to average MXN12.50/US$ in 2013. US markets look set to remain on a generally upward trajectory over the coming year following QE3, and investment and short-term capital inflows are likely to be robust given the country's improving macroeconomic fundamentals.

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Cartel activity will continue to weigh on growth for the foreseeable future, though we believe the situation is likely to improve in the long term.

Major Forecast Changes

We are modestly revising up our 2013 real GDP growth forecast, from 3.4% to 3.6% to take into account potential for a stronger export and investment picture, in light of our recent upward adjustment to US growth. That said, this still represents a noticeable slowdown from our estimated 4.0% growth in 2012.

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