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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/31/2014 -- We have revised up our real GDP growth forecasts for Mexico from 3.5% to 3.9% in 2014. The latest release of GDP data show that manufacturing in Mexico grew 2.9% year-on-year during the third quarter of 2013. In addition to favourable data out of the US, Mexico's key export market, we note that autos manufacturers Chrysler and Nissan have indicated plans to expand manufacturing capacity at their plants in Mexico. Although we estimated real GDP growth of just 1.6% for Mexico in 2013, we expect an acceleration in economic growth in 2014, underpinned by a recovering manufacturing sector and a pick-up in fixed investment, following earlier delays.
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Headline Industry Data
- Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 3.6% in 2014, to reach 107.9mn tonnes.
- Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.3% in 2014, to reach 522.108mn tonnes.
- Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 4.2% in 2014, to reach 120.157mn tonnes.
- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2014 is estimated to hit 4.4% growth to reach 22.5mn tonnes.
Key Trends And Developments
Military Takes Over Drug Port, Causes Downside Risk
The decision to have Mexico's military take over operations at the Pacific port of Lazaro Cardenas presents downside risks to the facility's container throughput levels, with experienced port staff being dismissed and replaced with navy personnel. The military's crackdown on drug-related activity at the port will be a shortterm threat to throughput, with Lazaro Cardenas still set to benefit from the investment and expertise of global port operators APM Terminals and HPH over the medium to long term.
DHL Raises Stake In Mexico
DHL Express is raising its stake in Mexico. The company has invested millions of dollars in its Latin American operations in recent months, including US$25mn for its hub in Mexico City and more than US $1mn for a new operations centre in Guadalajara, Mexico.
US And Mexico Increasingly Use Rail To Trade
An increasing amount of trade between the US and Mexico is being transported via rail networks. The trend suggests intermodal freight methods are preferable to shipping goods, the Journal of Commerce reports. Nearly 18% of trade between the countries used surface transport methods in August 2013, rising from 14.8% four years earlier.
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