New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Netherlands Freight Transport Report Q2 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/21/2013 -- BMI View: Expect A Slower Recovery
BMI still expects a recovery in Dutch GDP in 2013, although 2012 looks like having been worse than we had originally expected. In the second half of 2012 the outlook was gloomy on almost all fronts, with foreign investment, domestic consumption, and exports all either contracting or showing greater-thanexpected weakness. To add to a disappointing picture, we worried that higher inflation might further erode consumer purchasing power, while the possibility of a crash in the property market could not be excluded.
That said, we think easier credit conditions in the US and eurozone this year will help turn around the outward-looking Netherlands economy. The formation of what we believe to be a stable Liberal and Labour party coalition government late last year, with a shared view on the need for fiscal austerity and economic reform, will also help. Overall we now estimate that GDP fell by 1.1% in 2012 (a sharper drop than the 0.6% estimate in our last quarterly report), with growth expected to return slowly at 0.2% in 2013 and 0.9% in 2014. BMI notes that GDP growth in the country is not forecast to push up beyond 1% until 2015.
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In spite of this poor outlook for the country's economy, we also note that in 2013 most freight transport modes are likely to see cargo volume growth in the 1-5% range. In all cases, in fact, tonnage growth will exceed the general rate of GDP expansion. There are various reasons for this, with perhaps the most important being the country's role as a gateway into northern Europe. This means that freight demand reflects not just the fortunes of the Dutch economy, but also those of a number of better-performing neighbours in northern Europe.
Headline Industry Data
- Port of Rotterdam bulk throughput forecast for 2013: growth of 5.5% to 465.613mn tonnes. Container traffic to expand by 6.2% to 12.601mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2013 Port of Amsterdam bulk throughput forecast to grow by 2.2% to 74.431mn tonnes. Container traffic to grow by 4.5% to 49,195 TEUs.
- 2013 rail freight total tonnage volume growth to come in at 4.9% to reach 42.466mn tonnes.
- 2013 total trade growth forecast set at 2.8% in real terms, similar to 2012.
- Export growth remains sluggish, at 2.5%, according to both 2012 estimates and 2013 forecasts.
Key Industry Trends
UPS Takeover Of TNT Express Rebuffed The European Commission has rejected the proposed US$5.2bn takeover of TNT Express by the US logistics giant, UPS. The EC said it as opposed to the takeover on competition grounds. The deal had been scheduled for completion by February 28. Despite several revisions of the proposals the deal has collapsed, leaving TNT stock 42% down. UPS intends to pay TNT EUR200mn (US$265.46mn) as a termination fee, and UPS has expressed extreme disappointment.
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