New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/08/2013 -- We maintain our overall cautious outlook for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand, as growth will remain vulnerable to the weather conditions and uncertain global demand. Although we have long favoured the dairy over the livestock segment, the latter is likely to receive a boost in the medium-tolonger term owing its increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China. Internally, however, we stress the need for skilled labour at farms.
- Milk production growth to 2016/17: 6.0% to 21.8mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth to 2016/17.
- Milk powder production growth to 2016/17: 5.3% to 1.3mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments, export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.
- Beef production growth to 2016/17: 5.7% to 663,000 tonnes. The dairy sector will continue to limit the amount of cattle available for slaughter.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$10.4bn in 2013 (down from US$10.6bn in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 1.3% on average to 2017)
- 2013 real GDP growth: 2.2% (up from 1.7% in 2012; forecast to average 2.4% from 2012 until 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 2.1% (up from 1.5% in 2012; forecast to average 2.4% from 2012 until 2017).
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 2.5% (identical to 2012; forecast to average 4.1% from 2012 until 2017).
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In July 2013, New Zealand signed an Economic Cooperation Agreement (ECA) with Taiwan, calling for the elimination of all tariffs on beef within two years, and tariffs on sheep meat within four years. New Zealand's Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) and the Meat Industry Association (MIA) praised the signing of the ECA. MIA Chairman Bill Falconer has said the development is highly significant given that Taiwan is a key market for the New Zealand sheep and beef industry, with red meat consumption steadily increasing in the former over the past decade. In total, New Zealand exported NZD208mn worth of sheep and beef products, including co-products, to Taiwan for the year ending December 2012. It paid around NZD18mn in tariffs during the year.
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