Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/28/2014 -- We continue to maintain our positive long-term outlook on the Nigerian economy, and food and drink sector over our forecast period, despite some of the obstacles in the near term. In addition to ongoing instability in the country's northern regions, and high rates of inflation (which increased 7.90% year-onyear in November 2013, according to the National Bureau of Statistics), we note that downside risks have increased over recent months. Specifically, ructions within the ruling party and the uncertainty surrounding the identity of the central bank governor are both issues which could destabilise the economy, is having a negative impact on consumer confidence. However, there is no doubt of the tremendous untapped potential of this emerging market, yet a lack of agricultural technology and transport infrastructure are holding back domestic production.

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Similarly to much of the continent, Nigeria is experiencing a growing middle class, accompanied by economic growth (real GDP is forecast to increase 7.2% in 2014). The increasing spending power of this middle class is being targeted by multinationals who are continuing in invest in the country's food and drink sector. Domestic winners from Nigeria's growing food consumption are more likely to be retailers such as Artee Group's Park'n'Shop rather than food producers as domestic producers are not yet in a position to supply additional demand. The Nigerian economy is set to be one of the continent's strongest performers in 2014. Underpinning this growth will be the non-oil sector, including food and drinks industries, set to experience buoyant rates of expansion thanks to relatively healthy macroeconomic environment.

While economic growth in 2014 will continue to be constrained by the headwinds that characterised much of 2012 and 2013, including security concerns and the lingering effects of widespread flooding, the longterm outlook remains very bright. We are forecasting average annual real GDP growth of 7.1% over the next 10 years, and expect the Nigerian government to prioritise investment in vital infrastructure over our forecast period and beyond, which will greatly benefit the food and drinks sector, as well as the grocery retail sector.

Headline Industry Forecasts

- Per capita food consumption (local currency) 2014 = +8.18%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +8.24%
- Alcoholic drinks volume sales 2014 = +8.40%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +8.20%
- Mass grocery retail sales (local currency) 2014 = +33.50%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +36.11%

Key Industry Trends And Developments

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