Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/11/2013 -- Oil production in Norway may be in decline, but the country retains considerable upside gas potential and should continue to be a major force in European energy supply for decades to come. Discoveries of considerable size are clearly still possible in mature areas, as demonstrated by the giant Johan Sverdrup and surrounding oil finds that continue to be made. This, and fresh prospective acreage offered in the Barents Sea, should stimulate new investment from domestic and foreign operators, slow a decline in oil output and spur on gas production within our 10-year forecast period.

The main trends and developments we highlight in Norway's oil and gas sector are:

- The Norwegian Parliament appears to have already acknowledged the success of the country's first Barents Sea auction. In mid-June 2013, it voted to open additional Arctic acreages further east, close to the Russian maritime border. The blocks will be put on offer during the 23rd licensing round which is due to open in 2013 and run through 2014. The NPD estimated that the region on offer could hold about 285mn barrels (bbl) of oil and as much as 1.62bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of natural gas. Large expectations about the below-ground potential of the Barents Sea already piqued the interest of international oil companies (IOCs). A total of 20 blocks were allocated in the 2013 round to a broad range of companies.
- The Norwegian government published the results of Norway's 22nd Licensing round on 13 June 2013. Out of the 86 blocks initially on offer, 24 were awarded to various consortia totalling 29 companies, with only one not lying North of the Polar circle. The round attracted numerous IOCs bringing a high degree of expertise and investable capital to the Norwegian Barents Sea. Statoil gained ownership in seven licences on three of which it will act as operator. Eni, Total, Shell and ConocoPhillips also obtained stakes in the prospects on offer.
- The giant Johan Sverdrup field's total resource estimates continue to rise. Data from another high-impact find by Statoil - Geitungen - show that it could be linked to the Johan Sverdrup complex. If so, it could add another 140-270mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) to original estimates of 2.1-2.8bn boe of recoverable resources from the field. Statoil will select a development concept by the end of 2013 and expects first oil at the end of 2018, though we forecast that production will only start to peak after 2020. Other notable discoveries made in 2012 include Statoil's King Lear play and Total's Garantiana find in October 2012.

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