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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/07/2013 -- The Philippines' oil and gas outlook is a relatively positive one, marked by an expected shortterm increase in both liquids and gas production. Longer-term growth will be dependent on current exploratory results. Consumption is also expected to rise on the back of economic growth, and the government's promotion of gas use. However, we note that infrastructure and supply constraints could limit the country's gas demand growth in the longer term. The need to build up its gas infrastructure considerably provides a market opportunity for the midstream.
The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:
- Total liquids production is set to rise, with new volumes brought online by the Phase II development of the Galoc field, redevelopment of the Cadlao field and an expected final investment decision to be made for re-developing West Linapacan. These underlie our revised forecast the Philippines' oil production, which we expect to rise from 25,240 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to hit a peak of 33,430b/d in 2016. Thereafter, without other new fields in commercial production, we expect output to fall slightly to around 29,900b/d by 2022 due to the natural rate of resource depletion.
- An expected rise in oil consumption will see the Philippines remain a net oil importer, though this is likely to remain relatively steady. We expect its net import requirement to increase from an estimate of 292,300b/d in 2012 to 295,600b/d in 2017. By 2022, however, consumption growth will have outpaced addition to oil production, bringing its net import requirement up to about 330,200b/d.
- In the near term, the Philippines's total gas production will be determined not by field capacity, which is substantial, but by the available market for the fuel. The development of the Malampaya gas field, located 80 kilometres (km) off the coast of Palawan Island and the country's primary domestic supply source, has been managed so output can be sent to purpose-built power stations, and the main demand driver will, therefore, be the domestic electricity sector.
- Gas production is expected to peak at 4.1bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2017 from an estimate of 3.1bcm in 2012. No further increase to output has been considered beyond 2017 based on current exploration results for gas. Nonetheless, due to upgrades to sustain Malampaya's field life we expect the fall in reserves levels to only hit output beyond our forecast period.
- Gas consumption growth is likely to outpace production growth, and the Philippines is likely to lose its self-sufficiency status within the decade. We expect the equilibrium between domestic gas demand and supply to be broken by 2014, in which consumption is expected to rise from an estimate of 3.08bcm in 2012 to 3.73bcm. By 2017, demand is expected to hit 4.24bcm, surpassing supply by 0.13bcm.
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