Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/29/2015 -- Negative developments in the Russian tourism market, starting in 2014, are likely t o continue into 2015 and beyond . The Ukraine crisis in particular has damaged Russia's reputation amongst key tourist source markets in the EU and North America and the exchange of sanctions between Russia and the EU in particular is likely to inflict further damage on tourist arrivals to Russia if sustained. The FIFA World Cup in 2018 will provide an opportunity for the country to regain ground lost since 2014. The associated investment is sorely needed in a country with an outdated accommodation sector and aging transport infrastructure.

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The ongoing crisis in Ukraine is the primary reason for our view that the Russian tourism industry will continue to contract in coming years, especially if there is no rapid resolution of the conflict or a significant shift in Russia's foreign policy, neither of which look likely outcomes in late 2014. Sanctions from European countries, a key source market for Russian tourism, have severely affected arrivals alongside reputational damage caused to Russia through its controversial foreign and policies. The crash of Malaysian Airways flight MH17, and the perception of Russian involvement in the events leading up to the crash, have also caused specific damage to inbound travel. International arrivals to Russia are expected to continue to fall in 2015 to around 22.2mn, down from an estimated 24.6mn in 2014, and then drop even further to 16.5mn by 2018 as tourists continue to stay away. This will have a knock-on effect on tourism-related receipts and hotel numbers, and BMI expects both to decline over the forecast period. Despite experiencing an overall drop in arrivals to Russia, the Asia Pacific region remains likely to increase its share of arrivals to Russia as a result of this as the effect of the fallout from the Ukraine crisis will be felt less strongly outside of NATO countries.

Outbound travel will continue to suffer in...

The Russia Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Russia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Russian tourism industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian tourism market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.

- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Inbound tourism: Arrivals (?000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).

Outbound tourism: Departures (?000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (?000 and growth % y-o-y).

Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (?000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).

Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (?000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (?000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (?000), (growth % y-o-y).

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