New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q2 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/15/2013 -- Core Views
Prime Minister Robert Fico will continue to benefit from his party's outright majority in parliament, which has eased policy formation and implementation. While this is positive for political stability in the short term, it does not provide much space for consensus politics, with Fico's tax and welfare reforms likely to cause some concern among investors.
Economic growth is set to moderate in 2013 as production in the key automobile sector stabilises and external demand remains weak. Headline growth disguises the downside risks associated with an overdependence on exports and a narrow industrial base.
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Domestic demand growth will remain negligible in the short term as new austerity measures come into force and unemployment remains stubbornly high.
Major Forecast Changes
We have raised our estimate for the full-year current account surplus in 2012 to 1% of GDP (from a previous 0.7%), as exports continued to outperform in the second half of the year.
The government is front-loading borrowing to take advantage of favourable market conditions where possible. As a result, we have revised our forecast for public debt up to 50.8% of GDP in 2012 and 55% in 2013.
Risks To Outlook
The risks to our growth forecasts lie mainly to the downside due to lingering headwinds in the regional economy, with developments in Germany and the Czech Republic particularly important for the export-driven expansion.
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