Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/12/2013 -- The country has undertaken many measures to battle the surge in energy demand as a result of the soaring summer temperatures. The situation has highlighted once again the problems that have resulted from its previous lack of investment in generation capacity. Moreover, the government has had to undertake strong action to combat the new wave of scandals which threaten to further weaken the public's trust in South Korea's nuclear power plants. Although we expect the country to power ahead with its capacitybuilding plans, the latest proposal to levy a carbon tax on electricity energy is likely to impact the attractiveness of the industry for private producers.

We forecast overall power generation in South Korea to grow at an average of 4.3% per annum between 2013 and 2022, reaching 767.1TWh. While coal- and gas-fired generation continue to play a vital role, we expect most of the growth to come from nuclear generation, which we expect will lead growth in generation in the second half of our 10-year forecast period to 2022, despite the current high level of public distrust. We expect the country to continue adding thermal capacity to avoid further supply shortfalls, which it experienced in September 2011. As South Korea recorded several incidents where a surge in power consumption resulted in generation dipping into the 4,000 megawatt (MW) reserve buffer level set out by the government, the construction of eight coal-fired plants by private operators was approved (adding an estimated 2740MW) with completion anticipated by 2027. The government further approved the construction of another six gas-fired plants (adding an estimated 5060MW to the system), which are to become operational between 2015 and 2017. This is in line with our expectations for the increasingly cautious government to look to other forms of generation to fill the supply gap, given public distrust in nuclear generators.

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