Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Ukraine Food & Drink Report Q4 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/27/2014 -- The outlook for Ukraine's economy has deteriorated rapidly since the publication of our Food & Drink report for the beginning of 2014 . Our Country Risk team believes that Ukraine will experience a deep recession in 2014, and forecasts near-stagnant economic growth through to 2018. Recession in 2014 will be driven by the devaluation of the hryvnia and major trade disruption due to the elevated risk of a military escalation with Russia. Soaring inflation, substantially tighter government spending, diminished purchasing power and extremely tight credit conditions will also contribute to the dismal economic outlook.
The slowdown has already begun, with recently released data indicating that the economy contracted by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2014. Soaring inflation, substantially tighter government spending, diminished purchasing power and extremely tight credit conditions all point towards a sharp recession in 2014, and we expect real GDP to contract by 4.1% this year. While the IMF loan may help to instil some confidence in Ukraine's debt servicing abilities over the coming quarters, the associated austerity measures and economic reforms will push the economy into contraction.
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Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2014 total food consumption sales (local currency) growth: +6.3%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018: +7.9%.
- 2014 per capita food consumption sales (local currency) growth: +7.0%; CAGR to 2018: +8.6%.
- 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +6.9%; CAGR to 2018: +8.9%.
- 2014 soft drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +7.2%; CAGR to 2018: +8.8%.
- 2014 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales (local currency) growth: +8.4%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013 to 2018: +10.1%.
Key Company Trends
Roshen Forced To Suspend Russian Operations : Confectionary firm Roshen, whose owner is Ukraine's President-Elect Petro Poroshenko, has lost its appeal against the Russian court's decision to seize...
The Ukraine Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Ukraine Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Ukraine.
- Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian food and drink market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Ukraine through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:
Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
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