Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/02/2013 -- The necessity of reducing healthcare spending by both the public and private sectors in the US is having a direct downward effect on prescription drug expenditure. The government, employers and families can readily identify with medicine cost containment, but have difficulty lowering spending on more nebulous areas such as healthcare administration, technology and intermediaries in the supply chain. There is also the inherent difficulty of reducing the wages of medical personnel, which account for a sizeable proportion of total healthcare spending. Downwards pressure on revenue generated by prescription drug firms will become increasingly common, as early efforts to do so have proved successful

Headline Expenditure Projections:

- Pharmaceuticals: US$343.0bn in 2012 to US$343.4bn in 2013; +0.1% growth in local currency terms. Forecast slightly down from Q213 due to incorporation of new historic data and macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: US$2,781bn in 2012 to US$2,950bn in 2013; +6.1% growth in local currency terms. Forecast slightly down from Q113 due to macroeconomic factors.

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Risk/Reward Rating: The US pharmaceutical market ranks first both regionally and globally in BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix, a reflection of its unquestionable attractiveness and limited risks in comparison to other markets. The US has ranked first consistently over the past three years, thanks to strong scores across the four major sub-categories. We expect this situation to remain for the foreseeable future, with no other markets expected to top the vast commercial potential of the country's pharmaceutical market, underpinned by the high per capita volume use of medicines. The US has a Pharmaceutical RRR score of 80.9 out of 100 for Q313.

Key Trends And Developments:

- In May 2013, BMI revised its forecast downwards for prescription drug sales in the US, following the receipt of confirmed 2012 data from primary market research firm IMS Health. Spending on prescription drugs fell for the first time in several decades in 2012, from US$329bn in 2011 to US$325bn. Removing the effect of inflation, this 1% drop in nominal terms equates to a 3.1% decline in real terms. Because the population expanded over 2012, the real per capita contraction in prescription drug spending is even greater. We now expect the US prescription drug market to reach a value of US$393bn by 2022, down from our previous projection of US$449bn.

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