Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/11/2013 -- Tourist arrival data for January indicated that outbound tourism got off to a slow start in 2013, with international departures growing by just 0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), to total 1.9mn. January is a traditionally slow time for outbound US tourism, as most US tourists travel in the Christmas holiday season. Outbound tourism tends to pick up towards the Easter holiday and into the summer months. For 2013 as a whole, BMI is predicting tourist departures to grow by 3.8%, slightly below growth of 4.3% registered in 2012.

Official US arrivals data for 2013 has not yet been released but international air arrivals can be used as a proxy. In February 2013 international air traffic by non-US citizens grew by 5.0% y-o-y. In the same month, international visitors in the US spent an estimated US$14.3bn - representing a rise of 5.0% y-o-y. This is encouraging for the industry given that February is low season for international tourism to the US, and suggests that arrivals will remain strong later in the year. We are forecasting full-year arrivals of 57.5mn in 2013, or growth of 4.3%.

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- BMI has revised its 2013 arrivals forecasts, predicting 57.5mn arrivals this year, or y-o-y growth of 4.3%. Outbound departures will grow at a slightly lower rate of 3.8%, to total 63.1mn.
- The main departures market for US tourists in 2013 will remain Canada, with departures to Mexico, the second-largest market, remaining sluggish across the forecast period.
- BMI has updated the US Tourism Risk/Reward rating, with a new overall tourism score of 74.4 this quarter, placing the country in first place in the developed countries ranking, just ahead of Canada.

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