New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/02/2013 -- BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the Argentine port sector. The country enjoys a good commodities mix, but it continues to struggle with external headwinds, as well as internal difficulties in the form of rising inflation and labour unrest. We continue to expect that Argentine real GDP growth will bottom in 2013, forecasting 1.8% growth this year after 1.9% growth last year, as a currency devaluation, which we expect to occur in H213, sends inflation higher, and net exports drag on real GDP growth. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.9% next year on the back of a rebound in private consumption and less of a drag from net exports.
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Headline Industry Data
- Total tonnage volume at the Port of Buenos Aires is set to increase by 2.5% in 2013, to reach 11.3mn tonnes. Box handling at the port will rise by 2.2%, to 1.1mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- The Port of Bahia Blanca will see 4.2% growth in volume, to 14.6mn tonnes in 2013. Box handling at the port will also grow by 12.1%, to 34,933 TEUs.
Key Industry Trends
Strike Cripples Rosario: Operations at the port of Rosario were stalled following strike action on 20 May 2013 by port workers who were protesting over wages. The strike slowed exports from the country's main grains hub.
Shipping Lines Shifting to Montevideo: Shipping lines are shifting their calls from the Argentine port of Buenos Aires to the Uruguayan port of Montevideo, due to rising costs at Buenos Aires.
Risks To Outlook
The key risks to our outlook are on the downside. We maintain our view that Argentina faces strong economic headwinds: soaring inflation, fiscal profligacy and growing government intervention, which means the Argentine economy will struggle to sustain its current growth trajectory, as investors become increasingly cautious of the economy.
A lack of investment in port infrastructure has resulted in frequent bottlenecks and delays at ports. Argentina has a weak financial system and relatively weak legal and regulatory frameworks. A high level of perceived corruption damages the appeal of doing business in the country, possibly acting as a deterrent to foreign port operators.
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