New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/18/2013 -- Recently released economic data suggest that the slowdown in economic activity in Australia is becoming increasingly evident. We maintain our outlook for real GDP growth to come in at 2.1% in 2013. We believe the job market will remain in a dire shape, while households will continue to struggle. This will weigh on private consumption, in turn negatively affecting food and drink consumption growth. Retail sales also will very likely remain subdued. Even if economic conditions take a turn for the better, the shift of consumption habits towards private labels in Australia is likely to remain firmly entrenched over the coming years as a growing number of consumers acknowledge private labels as a very compelling alternative to proprietary branded goods.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2013 per capita food consumption = +1.2%; forecast to 2017 = +6.5%.
- 2013 soft drinks sales = +1.6%; forecast to 2017 = +12.1%.
- 2013 alcoholic drinks sales = +1.5%; forecast to 2017 = +11.2%.
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +2.6%; forecast to 2017 = +21.1%.
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Key Industry Trends And Developments
Improved Outlook Insufficient To Revive Exports: We have revised upward our estimates for Australia's wheat production in the 2013/14 season, after rain in May and June boosted crop prospects. We continue to see output rebounding strongly after 2012/13's dismal crop, reaching 25.3mn tonnes, up 14.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), compared with a previous estimate of 24.8mn tonnes. This compares with 25.4mn tonnes estimated last month by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences and 25.5mn tonnes by the US Department of Agriculture.
ABH Puts Bottled Water Division On Auction Block: Australia-based bottled water manufacturer Australian Beverage Holdings (ABH) has put its bottled water division, Noble Beverages, on the auction block, reports Just Drinks, citing The Australian. ABH has reportedly hired local private equity firm Hawkesbridge Capital to manage the sale process. ABH, which acquired Noble Beverages in December 2004, expects to sell the division, which owns the Pureau water brand, for at least AUD12mn (US$11mn), according to the report.
Risks To Outlook
China could implement aggressive stimulus measures to support its weakening economy, which would in turn support Australian exports. While we maintain that any Chinese stimulus is likely to be smaller than the previous boost in 2008/2009, this remains a key risk and is something we will be watching closely.
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