Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/05/2015 -- Better than expected growth in the mobile market and higher usage of operator-billed services were seen in the third quarter of 2014. In part, this was due to an intensification of price competition and the withdrawal of a number of MVNOs, allowing key players to deepen their influence over the market. The rollout of 4G services also played a key part in this more buoyant growth story. Nevertheless, the cold truth is that the market is now highly saturated and there are few organic growth opportunities left for the remaining players to tap. Convergence-led strategies provide one lifeline, but only Proximus can directly benefit as Mobistar has yet to relaunch its TV-led wireline business and BASE has withdrawn its TV offer and scales back its wireline offering. These developments are reflected in our revised forecasts for the Belgian telecoms market, which have now been extended through to 2019 .

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Key Data

- The number of mobile subscriptions will rise from 13.023mn in 2014 to 13.795mn by the end of 2018, representing a penetration rate of 121.8%. A large number of inactive accounts are still retained by operators and the downside risk to our forecast is that periodic purges of inactive accounts could show that the market is actually much smaller than official data imply.

- Mobile ARPUs were buoyed in Q314 as the emphasis moved to postpaid services and a number of MVNO customers transferred to the MNOs. Mobile termination rate (MTR) cuts still weigh on ARPUs, but to a lesser extent than before. The deployment of higher value 4G plans also mitigates against a steep decline in ARPU, which we forecast to fall from EUR20.5 in 2014 to EUR20.1 by 2019.

Key Trends And Developments

The regulator has redeployed spare 3G spectrum among Proximus, Mobistar and BASE after fourth licensee Telenet Tecteo BidCo abandoned plans to build and launch its own network. The additional spectrum will help all three companies deepen their mobile broadband...

The Belgium Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Belgium's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Belgium Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Belgium.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Belgium to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belgian telecoms market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in Belgium's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Belgium.

- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMIs key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fi xed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G ), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

- Fixed-line Telephony Telephone lines (?000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.

- Cellular Telephony Mobile phone subscribers (?000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (?000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.

- Internet Markets Internet users (?000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (?000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

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