Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/04/2015 -- Core Views:

- Real GDP growth will be 4.5% in 2015, a downwards revision from our previous forecast of 5.2%. Falling diamond exports, diminishing base effects and ongoing power issues will constrain real GDP growth.

- Botswana will post a diminishing budget surplus amid rising spending and slowing revenue growth. We forecast a surplus equivalent to 0.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2014/15, falling to 0.3% of GDP in 2016/17.

- Monetary policy in Botswana will remain accommodative in 2015. Inflation is contained and will continue to be so in the coming months thanks to the pula's appreciation against the rand and slowing domestic economic growth.

- We predict that Botswana's current account surplus will narrow from an estimated 7.0% in 2014 to 5.4% in 2015. Having declined in 2014 we forecast that both goods imports and exports will return to growth in 2015.

- Political tensions are heightening in Botswana ahead of general elections, scheduled for October 24. Although we expect the incumbent Botswana Democratic Party to win, the contest is likely to be closer than in previous votes. There is also increasing risk of electoral violence.

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Key Risks To Outlook:

- We continue to note the risks to our forecasts posed by ongoing revisions to Botswana's national accounts estimates. Amid ongoing efforts by Statistics Botswana to more accurately portray the size and structure of the economy, GDP estimates remain subject to frequent and often notable adjustments.

- Given Botswana's dependence on imported energy and food any unexpected rise in global food or oil prices beyond our current projections, would pose a risk to our growth outlook.

- Uncertain energy supplies risk derailing economic activity in Botswana.

The Botswana Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Botswana and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Botswana's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of The Botswana's economic and industry growth through end-2017.

- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

- Contextualise The Botswana's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.

- Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Botswana, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Botswana Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Botswanan economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Botswana through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Botswana Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.

- BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).

- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.

- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.

- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.

- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.

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