Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/20/2013 -- Canada's mobile market continues to be dominated by the three major operators and exhibits slow and steady growth. Laws on spectrum transfers, foreign ownership as well as network sharing obligations have drawn the ire of Telus, Bell and Rogers, leading to court cases challenging the rulings. The measures are aimed at increasing competition in the market. However, it has not resulted in a strong fourth player emerging, given that consolidation between the smaller operators has not occurred. We do not expect to see a fourth player emerge until at least the January 2014 spectrum auction and even then, investors may be put off by the challenge. With the newer entrants all putting themselves up for sale in Q113, it seems likely that they are close to exhausting their financial reserves and that their strategy of targeting the low-cost prepaid market has not paid off. However, there are opportunities that could be attractive for potential entrants; penetration is exceptionally low for a developed market at 77.1%, while ARPU continues to grow among most of the major operators.

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Key Data

- All the major mobile operators including Telus, Bell Wireless, Rogers Wireless and MTS Mobility all reported net mobile subscriber additions in Q213, returning to growth following market contraction in Q113. We expect subscriber growth to pick up in the second half of 2013 and the market is on track to meet BMI's mobile sector growth forecasts for the 2013-2017 period.
- The principal operators - including regional players MTS and SaskTel - continue to roll out 4G services based on LTE technology. Although they remain reluctant to disclose adoption rates, continued growth in the number of smartphone and tablet users suggests they would be unwise to curtail 3G/4G investment any time soon.
- There data available regarding the development of the fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV markets, from selected operators is on track with our forecasts for the 2013-2017 and we have left them unchanged.

Key Trends & Developments

Bell Canada has chosen to seek legal advice against the Canadian government's insistence that it provide roaming and tower sharing agreements to smaller rivals, according to Cellular-News. Previously, the government announced that any new market entrants would be allowed to negotiate for roaming access with the major networks. In the past, any new deals that were made with new companies to share tower rights would usually only last about years, meaning they are ultimately encouraged to deploy their own network development. However, the Canadian government has scrapped that ruling, prompting Bell's decision.

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