Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/09/2013 -- Despite signals that the worst is over in Italy, we nonetheless expect the economy to remain in recession throughout 2013, forecasting a 1.5% contraction of real GDP. Our forecast for 0.1% and 0.7% growth in 2014 and 2015 respectively reflect our view that a lack of structural reforms will limit the country's competitiveness and productivity gains.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

- 2013 per capita food consumption = +0.09% year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2017 = +1.02%
- 2013 alcoholic drink value sales = +2.28%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +2.45%
- 2013 soft drink value sales = -1.12% ; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +1.48%
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +0.15%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +1.22%

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Barilla Looks to Double Sales and Expand Further Overseas: In May 2013, officials at Italian food giant Barilla outlined plans to double group sales to over EUR6bn by 2020. In order to reach its goals, Barilla is relying on a major push into emerging markets, new product launches and continued investment in research and development and marketing and communication. Referring to the company's international expansion, CEO Claudio Colzani said that 'between now and 2020 there will be one billion new consumers in the world,' in particular in areas such as South America and Asia. Targeting these new consumers' shopping habits is one of the key drivers of Barilla's growth strategy as currently these markets represent only 4% of group sales. In turn, international growth is also meant to offset some of the company's dependence on its home market as the strategy to 2020 sees Italy's share of total group revenues dropping to between 25% and 30%.

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Italian Wine Exports Rise to Record High: It was reported in spring 2013 that Italian wine exports have increased to an all-time high even as domestic wine consumption has decreased to a record low in the country, according to Just Drinks, citing figures compiled by Coldiretti. According to the figures, wine consumption levels declined by 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) during FY12, decreasing the overall wine consumption level to 22% y-o-y over the past decade. In FY12, domestic consumption of wine was recorded at 22.6mn hectolitres, while wine exports peaked to EUR4.7bn (US$6.11bn), making Italy the largest wine exporter in the world.

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