Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/06/2013 -- We are optimistic that Japan will be admitted to the 11-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade talks, especially after the conclusion of the latest successful round of negotiations of the Australia- Japan free trade agreement. We expect Japanese companies to continue expanding their ownership of overseas grain companies, as illustrated by the latest move by Mitsubishi to increase its stake in Brazilian grain producer Los Grobo Ceagro do Brasil. This is likely to ensure a steady supply of soybean even if main supplier US is unable to export to Japanese markets.

Key Forecasts

- Rice consumption growth to 2017: -9.0% on the 2012 level to 7.5mn tonnes. Demand for rice will fall as Western diets increase in popularity.
- Beef production growth to 2016/17: 1.4% on the 2012 level to 508,100 tonnes. Production will grow marginally, as consumers on tight budgets prefer cheaper poultry meat and pork to beef.
- Soybean consumption growth to 2017: 6.1% on the 2012 level to 3.2mn tonnes (with growth mainly due to base effects). Not counting its use as an important ingredient in animal feed, tofu (soybean curd), is the most common end use for soy in Japan, accounting for 57% of total food soybean use.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 1.4% (down from 1.9% in 2012, forecast to average 1.3% out to 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 0.1% average (up from -0.8% in 2012, forecast to average 1.0% to 2017).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$111.7bn in 2013 (down from US$114.7bn in 2012; forecast to decline annually by 0.1% on average to 2017)

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Key Revisions To Forecasts

Our 2012/13 wheat consumption forecast has increased, to 6.8mn tonnes from 6.5mn tonnes. This is due to the trend of substituting corn for wheat as an ingredient in producing compound feed. Indeed, wheat's composition in compound feed has grown from 0% in 2002 to 4% in 2012, corresponding with a fall in corn composition from 49% to 42% over the same period.

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