Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/24/2014 -- BMI View: We expect the Lithuanian pharmaceutical market to post a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0%, rising to a value of LTL2.09bn (US$726mn) in 2017. While double-digit annual growth rates are firmly in the past, some opportunities continue to exist in light of epidemiological factors and an ageing population. However, finances will remain tight, both in terms of public and private spending on medicines and healthcare in general.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: LTL1.72bn (US$640mn) in 2012 to LTL1.74bn (US$672mn) in 2013; +1.5% in local currency terms and +5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts somewhat higher in relation to previous quarter on account of more positive macroeconomic outlook.
- Healthcare: LTL7.67bn (US$2.86bn) in 2012 to LTL7.57bn (US$2.92bn) in 2013; -1.4% in local currency terms and +2.1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts somewhat higher in relation to previous quarter on account of more positive macroeconomic outlook.
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Risk/Reward Rating: Lithuania remains ranked in the bottom half of the table assessing 20 countries in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. We note that Lithuania's small population will continue to restrict longer-term opportunities in its pharmaceutical market, despite its solid risks profile and a predictable operating environment. We therefore hold to our view that Lithuania's overall Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score will not change drastically over the coming quarters.
Key Trends and Developments
- Lithuanian companies recently showcased their life science products, skills and expertise in Israel as part of the June 2013 IATI-BIOMED 2013 exhibition. The companies that took part in the exhibition included Biotechpharma, MedSiNet LT, and Optolita.
- Israeli venture capital companies are reportedly actively seeking to invest in Lithuania's life sciences sector. The two countries have also recently signed a bilateral cooperation agreement in industrial research and development (R&D).
BMI Economic View: Improvement in household consumption and a strong export sector performance in H113 point to another year of fairly robust economic growth in Lithuania, prompting us to lift our full-year real GDP growth forecast from 2.6% to 3.4%. Despite anticipating a slight drop in household spending growth in 2014, we believe a gradual improvement in fixed investment and still strong export levels will see real GDP growth accelerate to 3.6%.
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