Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Nigeria Freight Transport Report 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/07/2013 -- There will be a healthy increase in throughput across all modes of Nigeria's freight mix both in 2013 and over the forecast period. Leading the way will be the air freight sector, which is set to enjoy double-digit growth over the medium term. All of Nigeria's major ports are set to record healthy year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in 2013, with the Port of Apapa set to average 5.78% annual growth between 2013 to 2017, behind Port Harcourt's 5.93% and also trailing the outperformer Tin Can Island (9.02%). The rail freight sector is also set to record strong growth in 2013, with BMI forecasting a y-o-y increase of 6.84%.
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Although we have downgraded our growth forecasts for Nigeria's economy, due in large part to the sluggish performance at the beginning of the year, mainly on the back of a slowdown in the non-oil sector. We now expect growth of 6.8% in 2012, and 7.1% in 2013, compared to our previous projections of 7.1% and 7.3% respectively.
Proving a major boon to Nigeria's freight industry is the high price of oil, which has seen the value of Nigerian exports soar. However, the lack of sufficient investment, along with ongoing production issues in existing fields, has resulted in a contraction of production by volume over the four quarters from Q311 through Q212. Our Oil & Gas team believes that total oil production in Nigeria will post a decline of 2.7% for the full year of 2012, which is set to rebound to a 1.7% expansion in 2013. Non-oil exports are on the rise, but it will take a substantial period before these can have a large impact on the overall trade account.
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 air freight tonnes-km forecast to grow by 10.34% year-on-year (y-o-y) and to average 10.6% to 2017.
- 2013 Port of Lagos tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 6.48% and to average 5.78% to 2017.
- 2013 rail freight tonnes-km to grow by 6.84% and to average 7.08% to 2017.
- 2013 trade growth forecast at 6.70% and to average 6.43% to 2017.
Key Industry Trends
Nigerian Air Industry Hits Turbulence
Air Nigeria terminated its operations, it was announced in September 2012, resulting in the sacking of more than 500 members of staff. The firm had been dogged by numerous economic problems in recent times and the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NACA) had suspended Air Nigeria as recently as June due to financial concerns, with only a few flights able to continue.
Nigeria Begins Port Investment Push, But More Needed
The new Lekki Container Terminal to be developed in Nigeria is well positioned to help the country cope with the ever-growing demands placed upon it by its rapidly expanding economy and population growth. While a number of terminals are being developed in the region with an eye to capturing transhipment trade, the expected demand for containers in Nigeria should be sufficient to support the new terminal in itself.
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