Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/27/2015 -- A sharp slowdown in hydrocarbons sector investment amid a collapse in global oil prices will weigh on Norwegian GDP growth between 2015-17.

The Norwegian government will continue to expand fiscal policy in order to stimulate demand in the short run and to lay the structural foundations for stronger non-hydrocarbons growth over the longer run.

The residential housing market has been a major contributor to overall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set to cool over the next few years.

We envisage broad political continuity to the next election in 2017, with the Conservative-Progress minority coalition government achieving modest progress on its reform agenda.

Key Forecast Changes

In response to the central bank's surprise rate cut in September 2015, we have lowered our end-year key policy rate forecasts to 0.75% in 2015 and 0.50% in 2016 from 1.00% in both years. Furthermore we no longer expect hikes in 2017.

Get More Details on this Report and a Full Table of Contents at Norway Country Risk Report Q1 2016

These changes in our rate expectations also led us to lower our average krone forecasts versus the euro to NOK9.10/EUR from NOK8.60/EUR in 2016 and to NOK9.00/EUR from NOK8.50/EUR in 2017.

The Norway Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Norway. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Norway's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

-Forecast the pace and stability of Norway's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
-Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
-Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
-Contextualise Norway's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
-Evaluate external threats to doing business in Norway, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Norway Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Norway' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Norway through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Norway Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

-Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
-BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

-Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
-Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
-Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
-Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
-Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
-Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
-External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
-Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

-Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Norway

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