Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/14/2013 -- The Philippines Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on the Philippines' economic outlook of ongoing external weaknesses.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Philippine retail market while minimising investment risk, and explores the impact of an increasingly hostile external demand environment on the Philippine consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Philippine retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

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Philippines per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 36% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 43%. The Philippines comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms slightly for rewards.

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms. Sales are forecast to increase by 41.7% between 2013 and 2017, from US$13.9bn to US$19.7bn as domestic operators start modernising their outlets and increase the variety of products on offer. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in market liberalisation, which may encourage global multinationals to enter the country.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- Even in the face of a considerable slowdown in exports, the Philippine economy continues to power on, with Q113 figures reflecting impressive real GDP growth of 7.8% year-on-year. Although we reiterate that the Philippines is indeed vulnerable should external conditions continue to worsen, and that mediumterm risks stemming from a potential Japanese fiscal crisis are pertinent, we believe that strong domestic fundamentals will be enough to power the country on to strong growth in the immediate future. As such, we note that risks to our 2013 real GDP growth forecast of 5.9% are to the upside, and have upgraded our 2014 and 2015 forecasts to 5.5% and 5.4% respectively.

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