Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/19/2012 -- BMI View: Bulgaria's mobile sector contracted in Q212 in line with our view that the market is close to saturation. Although we expect positive growth over our five-year forecast period, ending 2017, we retain the view that network operators will focus more on revenue growth through high-value services in the future. We also retain a positive outlook for fixed (telephony and internet) sector, which we expect to benefit from the growing demand for converged services and the injection of much needed capital following consolidation and the arrival of new investors.

Key data

- BMI five-year forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors, as well as mobile ARPU, are extended to 2017 in this quarter's update.
- The Mobile sector contracted by 0.7% q-o-q in Q212, the first quarterly contraction since Q310.
- Market weighted average ARPU rose 4.7% q-o-q in Q212 to partly reverse a sharp decline in the previous quarter.

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Risk/Reward Ratings

Bulgaria remains in the 11th position on our Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table in this quarter's update, with no change to its aggregate score from the previous quarter or its ratings in any of our four ratings categories. Bulgaria scores below the regional average in all four of our ratings categories, while the country's aggregate score of 46.7 is 2.3 points below the overall regional average. Bulgaria's lowest rating is in the Industry Rewards category where a combination of declining subscriber growth and rapidly falling ARPU are among factors impacting on its ratings.

Key Trends And Developments

In our previous update, we highlighted how the sale of incumbent operator Vivacom dominated Bulgaria's telecoms market during the first half of 2012. During Q312, one of the groups that expressed late interest in the operator - a consortium comprising Russia's VTB Capital and Bulgaria's Corporate Commercial Bank - reached an agreement with creditor banks to buy a 70% stake in the operator.

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