Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/30/2013 -- BMI maintains its broadly optimistic outlook for the Canadian port sector, but we remain concerned about import and export volumes. We believe the Canadian economy will continue to slow down in 2013 due to weakening residential construction and household consumption, but should avoid falling into recession. The mix of growth will continue to shift away from private consumption as household balance sheets remain under pressure.

We now forecast 2013 GDP growth of 1.5% (down from 1.9% previously), following on from 1.8% in 2012 (we had expected 2.0% expansion). For 2014, we see an improvement to 2.1%, but this is a downgrade from our previous 2.5% forecast.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 Port of Vancouver tonnage throughput forecast to grow 5.0%. We project throughput to reach 154mn tonnes in 2017.
- 2013 Port of Vancouver container throughput forecast to grow 4.0% to reach 2.8mn TEUs. Over the medium term we project throughput to reach 3.4mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2017.

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Key Industry Trends

Intermodal Investments At Montreal: BMI believes that investment by the Montreal Port Authority (MPA) in improving its connecting traffic flows will help it to handle the growing numbers of containers passing through the port. While 2012 saw a sizeable decline in throughput at the Canadian facility, volumes handled were still greater than those seen in 2010. The overall trend at Montreal is for growth, and investment in its intermodal links will help the port to support this.

Vancouver to Expand Grain Export Facilities: Richardson International has been given the green light to begin the CAD120mn expansion of its Vancouver grain terminal by Port Metro Vancouver. BMI notes that the expansion, representing the single largest investment at the port for more than twenty years, will increase the storage capacity of the grain export facility, which has been running at capacity for several years, by as much as 82%, to 178,000 tonnes.

Port Saint John Details Container Throughput Increase: New Brunswick's Port Saint John has detailed its container tonnage figures from the first four months of 2013, according to the Journal of Commerce. The port's container tonnage came in at 154,939 tonnes, a y-o-y increase of 77%. In TEU terms, throughput came to 24,190 units, a y-o-y increase in excess of 50%.

Risks To Outlook

The biggest risk by far is the potential for a eurozone breakup, which would threaten the Canadian economy across the board, from business confidence to trade and financial markets.

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