Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Chile Retail Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/08/2013 -- The Chile Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Chile's economic outlook of high labour costs, a moderation in external demand and a fiscally conservative government.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Chilean retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a possible rapid slowdown in Chinese growth and a eurozone break-up on the Chilean consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Chilean retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Chilean per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a healthy 28% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk.
Among all retail categories, food & drink will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase from US$25.80bn in 2012 to US$38.79bn by the end of the forecast period, up more than 50%.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the opportunity for mass grocery retail (MGR) retailers to expand beyond Santiago, which should lead to Chile's MGR market becoming an increasingly attractive proposition for multinational companies. Sales at MGR outlets are expected to grow by almost 46% over the period, from US$20.82bn in 2012 to US$30.31bn by 2016.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI remains above consensus on growth in 2012 at 4.8%, noting that Chile saw real GDP pick up in Q112 to 5.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), from 4.5% the previous quarter, thanks to a positive contribution from net exports. However, the precarious external environment means that downside risks are significant and growing.
- BMI is sticking with its forecast for household expenditure to grow by 4.5% in real terms in 2012 (down from 8.8% in 2011), before picking up slightly to 6.0% in 2013. Unemployment remained near its lowest level in a decade at 6.5% in April; and, while consumer credit growth slowed, to 15.8% y-o-y in April from 16.2% the previous month, the rate of expansion is still strong, with nominal levels of consumer loans continuing to hit record highs.
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