Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/14/2012 -- BMI View: On the one hand, Egypt is a significant LNG exporter and its Nile Delta and Western Desert prospects have attracted independents and majors alike. On the other hand, the country has failed to avoid sliding into net oil importer status: from a net crude export high of 513,000b/d in 1993, Egypt became a net importer in 2009-10. We expect oil production to continue sliding, while at the same time seeing rising consumption. Growing demand for gas will eat into new production volumes, pulling down export volumes in the second half of the forecast period.
We highlight these trends and developments in Egypt's oil and gas sector:
- BMI expects Egyptian oil production to decline from 650,000b/d in 2011 to just under 584,000b/d in 2021. Consumption is expected to rise significantly, from 736,000b/d to 1.02mn b/d in the same period, quadrupling Egypt's oil import bill in the coming years.
- We do not see any proposed refineries advancing over the forecast period, and with refining capacity remaining flat, imports of refined products are set to rise from 147,000b/d in 2011 to over 432,000b/d by 2021.
- Although gas production is expected to grow from 62.5bcm to 86.5bcm in 2011-21, consumption will also rise significantly, from 46.5bcm to 70.3bcm. As a result, gas exports (LNG) will rise modestly in 2011-15, but then gradually fall to 16bcm by the end of the forecast period.
- We do not see Egypt continuing exports to Israel beyond 2011, although gas flows through the Arab gas pipeline will help provide much-needed export revenues.
- There is no indication yet that the 2011 political changes will result in an adverse upstream business environment for foreign investors. The delayed 2011 licensing round was delayed but reinstated, with a bidding deadline of end-January 2012.
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