Fast Market Research recommends "Germany Food & Drink Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/10/2013 -- Slower export growth, a symptom of weaker demand from Asia (particularly China), is being compensated for by a strengthening consumer story in Germany. We remain slightly above consensus on German real GDP growth in 2013 and 2014, as we expect economic activity to show further signs of recovery in H213 into next year. Even though we are forecasting stronger private consumption, this does not necessarily translate into strong headline growth, and we do not expect real GDP to exceed the 2% mark for the foreseeable future. Perhaps more important than the headline rate of growth is the changing shape of GDP, which we expect to become increasingly dominated by domestic demand over the next few years. The worst now appears to be over for German households, which is likely to translate into positive private consumption growth in 2013, and thus increased food and drink spend.
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Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2013 per capita food consumption = +3.3%; forecast to 2017 = +19.9%.
- 2013 alcoholic drink value sales = +1.0%; forecast to 2017 = +5.6%.
- 2013 soft drink value sales = +3.7%; forecast to 2017 = +21.0%.
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +5.9%; forecast to 2017 = +36.6%.
Key Company Trends
Haribo Set For Asian Expansion: In summer 2013, Germany-based confectionery company Haribo signed a contract to grant Asian import, sales and marketing agency, DKSH, the exclusive rights to market, sell and distribute its confectionery products in Singapore and Myanmar. The deal is expected to help expand Haribo's Asia presence to these countries, and to contribute incrementally to the company's profitability over time.
German Beer Consumption Remains Challenging: In an interview in summer 2013, the boss at AB InBev Germany, Chris Cools, predicted that beer consumption in the country will continue to decline, with the loss of around 20mn hl over the next 10 to 15 years. The current year, 2013, is seen as particularly difficult, as sales have been adversely impacted by floods and bad weather.
Key Risks To Outlook
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