Fast Market Research recommends "Greece Freight Transport Report 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/27/2014 -- GDP To Grow For The First Time In Six Years
At long last, after six years of recession, there are some positive signs in the Greek economy. They have to be put into context, however. In 2013 economic activity levels continued to shrink, but the good news was that they did so at a slower rate than in previous years. And in the second half of 2013 there were signs of improving sentiment. The European Commission (EC)'s economic sentiment indicator, which remained at record lows in 2012, began what looked like a sustained process of improvement in 2013. BMI believes this has been an early portent of a change in the real economy in 2014, which will be helped by improving eurozone demand. We forecast a return to GDP growth in 2014, with a modest +1.1% expansion rate. We believe GDP will accelerate to 1.8% in 2015. The most important feature of our forecast is the simple fact that the economy will grow for the first time in years, but we expect the recovery to be fragile. Given the very high levels of unemployment, the improvement in household consumption will be limited. Without a recovery in foreign demand for Greek exports, or an inflow of European foreign direct investment, the sustainability of the domestic economic recovery is not guaranteed.
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Looking at specific transport modes, the main feature of 2014 will be the return of many transport modes to positive growth. Road and rail freight tonnage will grow in a range of 2-4%, with the port of Piraeus achieving expansion of almost 8%, boosted by transit freight demand and recent investments in increasing capacity. The return of foreign trade growth in 2013 and 2014 after four years of contractions is also a positive factor.
Headline Industry Data
- Air freight cargo set to get back in positive territory, with growth of 2.0% to 68,900 tonnes in 2014, after estimated 3.6% contraction in 2013.
- 2014 will see respectively moderate and strong growth in tonnage throughput at the country's two main ports: Thessaloniki (up 1.8% to 12.399mn tonnes) and Piraeus (up 7.8% to 16.685mn tonnes).
- Rail freight volume set to grow 3.9% to almost 2.3mn tonnes in 2014, after a 2.5% contraction in 2013.
- Road haulage will be up by 2.6% to 367.01mn tonnes.
- The real value of Greek trade (imports plus exports) will grow by 2.9% in 2014, following 2.6% growth in 2013.
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