Fast Market Research recommends "Hong Kong Business Forecast Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/19/2013 -- Core Views
Our 2013 real GDP growth forecast stands at 2.5%, which remains below consensus projections of 3.7%.
The Qianhai-Hong Kong special economic zone will help to bolster Hong Kong's financial sector, and that the sector will continue to be one of the city's main engines of growth. Additionally, the city's banks will see increased opportunities in the offshore yuan services sector which will in turn help to cement its role as the leading global offshore yuan trading centre.
Despite the recent run up in property prices, we are not abandoning our bearish take on the sector. That said, we are not discounting a further marginal near-term upside in prices, as investors ride on bullish sentiment from the equity markets. We believe, however, that receding demand, stemming from further economic deterioration and the government's tightening measures, coupled with the anticipation of a meaningful increase in the housing supply in the coming years, will combine to enforce a correction in property prices in 2013.
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Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying's endeavours to improve his public profile through enhancing the city's welfare infrastructure, and the government's use of public infrastructure investment to support economic activity are likely to carry fiscal pressure. However, we believe that Leung's pragmatic policymaking style thus far should help to keep the rise in government expenditure in check. Additionally, the planned increase in government land sales should mitigate, to a certain extent, the fall in tax revenues. We consequently do not envisage much structural risk to the government's fiscal health.
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