Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/20/2012 -- The Indonesian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Indonesia's economic outlook of rising prices in the domestic arena.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Indonesian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the evolving eurozone debt crisis, a hard landing in China as well as tepid growth in the US and Japan on the Indonesian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indonesian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
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Indonesia comes fifth (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for rewards.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 77.0% between 2012 and 2016, from US$35.97bn to US$63.66bn as the large population is tempted by certain aspects of modern retailing such as private labelling, price promotions and bulk selling.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government's interference in hypermarket planning, which should encourage growth in the medium-sized supermarket sector and the convenience sector.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- With Bank Indonesia (BI) increasingly likely to reverse its easing campaign by hiking interest rates because of rising price pressures, BMI expects the investment climate in Indonesia to deteriorate over the coming quarters. We have cut our fixed-capital growth outlook from 8.5% to 7.5%. Likewise, we see a slightly weaker outlook for the consumer taking its toll on private consumption, where we have also downgraded our forecast to 4.5% from its previous 5.3%. In line with these downgrades, we now see the Indonesian economy growing by 5.4% in 2012 versus our previous forecast of 5.8%.
- The consumer story in Indonesia continues to be one of the brightest in the world. The government has announced that it will shelve plans to reduce fuel subsidies for at least the remainder of 2012, while strong wage growth looks set to continue. However, the story is not so positive across the board. Private consumption growth slowed to 4.9% y-o-y in Q112 from 5.4% in Q411, and BI's consumer confidence index has fallen precipitously since peaking in January. Against BMI's previous forecast of 5.3%, we now see private consumption growing by just 4.5% in 2012 before rebounding to 5.9% in 2013.
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