Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/26/2012 -- BMI View: A challenging political situation - complete with international sanctions imposed on Iran over the past months - will continue to hamper the functioning of the country's healthcare services. While local companies are encouraged by the government to start producing more complex pharmaceuticals, imports will continue to remain crucial for meeting the population's medical needs, even though their viability has come into question over unpaid bills to suppliers. In the meantime, elevated inflation will eat into consumer purchasing power, while the rising budgetary deficit will preclude the government from additional investment into healthcare. Still, we see considerably longer-term potential in the Iranian pharmaceutical and healthcare markets, especially in volume terms.

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Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: IRR42,704bn (US$3.26bn) in 2011 to IRR51,722bn (US$3.62bn) in 2012; +21.1% in local currency terms and +11.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast somewhat increased from Q312, with historical figures changed due to exchange rate calculations.
- Healthcare: IRR283,935bn (US$21.68bn) in 2011 to IRR327,193bn (US$22.92bn) in 2012; +15.2% in local currency terms and +5.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q312.
- Medical devices: IRR11,805bn (US$901mn) in 2011 to IRR14,218bn (US$996mn) in 2012; +20.4% in local currency terms and +10.5% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast increased from Q312, on account of new historical data and exchange rate considerations.

Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's regional Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q412, Iran's score rose by 3.2% in relation to the previous quarter. The country now ranks 15th out of countries surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA). However, despite the longer-term potential provided by its large and youthful population, Iran will continue to represent a challenging market from the operational situation point of view.

Key Trends And Developments

- In May 2012, IRIB News Agency reported that Iran will start production of glatiramer acetate, an immunomodulator drug used for the treatment multiple sclerosis (MS), citing Huseyn Attar, the general director of research company Tofik Daru. Although the treatment of MS requires two or more episodes of symptoms and signs, glatiramer acetate provides treatment after a single episode. The drug, which is also used to treat relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), is administered by subcutaneous injection. Iran, which used to import glatiramer acetate, will domestically manufacture the drug, as part of its aim to be become self-sufficient in this regard,

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