Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/07/2013 -- Iraq's economy is one of the fastest growing in the region, and increased revenues from oil ensure that the government will have funds to dedicate to improving healthcare services. The primary care sector is one of the country's main weaknesses, but the Prime Minister is keen to accelerate the completion of new hospital facilities in order to raise the quality of services. But there are many problems that still need resolving. An absence of clear healthcare policy guidelines and a weak regulatory framework means that the government's approach appears to lack focus, delays to the approval of budgets does little to boost confidence in the sector, and concerns over drug quality remain, with many drugs sourced on the black market. Political tensions will do little to help bring about positive changes.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: IQD1,328bn (US$1.14mn) in 2012 to IQD1,524bn (US$1.31bn) in 2013; +14.8% in local currency and +15.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered slightly from Q213 on account of new data.
- Healthcare: IQD13,757bn (US$11.81bn) in 2012 to IQD16,425bn (US$14.13bn) in 2013; +19.4% in local currency and +19.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from Q213 because of new historical data.

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Risk/Reward Rating: Iraq remains at the bottom half of our Middle East and African region pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) score for Q313. It fares better on the Rewards side of the equation than in terms of risks. This quarter, it posted a score of 39.9, just below the regional average, placing it 18th out of a total of 30 markets.

Key Trends And Developments

The government announced in April 2013 that it had set aside US$800mn for the production of pharmaceutical products, the creation of new production lines in existing facilities, and for the training of new chemists and the creation of new production facilities.

In May 2013, US firm BioElectronics signed a distribution agreement with Mazaya Scientific Bureau for the sale of three of its products.

BMI Economic View: Iraq is one of the fastest growing economies in the MEA region. We forecast double-digit real GDP growth of 11.2% in 2013 and 14.5% in 2014, with elevated oil exports keeping the economy in good health.

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