Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Malaysia Power Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/13/2013 -- BMI View: We have revised up our short- and long-term electricity capacity and generation forecasts for Malaysia due to historical information regarding the hydropower. We highlight that our revisions for generation are of a smaller scale than for capacity, as we expect electricity supply in Sarawak to outstrip demand as a result of new hydropower projects. We continue to expect strong growth in gas generation, but note that coal generation is also likely to grow significantly. We have also revised up our renewable energy forecasts, following new information and continued support from the government.
We have revised up our 2013 electricity generation growth forecast from 5.7% to 6.6%. We attribute this revision to new information and data on the hydropower sector. Our forecasts for thermal and nonhydropower renewable generation remain unchanged for 2013, and we continue to expect modest growth in coal and natural gas generation (6.0% and 5.7% respectively).
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We have also revised up our long-term electricity generation forecasts. Between 2013 and 2021, we expect electricity generation to grow by an average of 5.1% per annum, up from our previous forecast of 4.7%, with the upward revision partly attributable to our hydropower forecasts. We believe that these revisions are justified, given our expectations of strong economic activity and a growing population over our forecast period. The Malaysian government has also announced plans to increase the country's power generation capacity by 4,500 megawatts in the period up to 2017, further reinforcing our positive outlook.
Key trends and developments in the Malaysian electricity market:
- The government has said that it would not be changing the electricity tariff until June 2013.
- The government has introduced a number of policies and incentives for renewable energy producers. The country's Sustainable Energy Development Agency (SEDA) is responsible for a number of these programmes, and regularly releases new data on capacity approvals.
- The government has given the go-ahead to begin identifying suitable sites for the country's first nuclear power plant. A budget of US$7bn has reportedly been allocated to the nuclear scheme, which, according to Minister of Energy, Green Technology and Water Peter Chin Fah Kui, is expected to start operations in 2021.
- The country's energy sector is set to become more competitive, following the Electricity Commission's decision to hold a new power generation tender exercise to replace Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with first generation Independent Power Producers expiring in 2016/17. The PPAs would be awarded and renewed based on the lowest cost of electricity generation, with only 50% of existing PPAs to be renewed.
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