Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/13/2012 -- BMI View: Negative global headwinds will impact the availability of the Moroccan government's finances to support the roll-out of the RAMED social insurance scheme, which aims to cover some 8.5mn people who are not entitled to mandatory health insurance. Nevertheless, the new government, which has been in power for just over six months, is likely to push on with the scheme, lest the failure to do so results in renewed social unrest. However, the authorities may still lower their coverage targets.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: MAD10.01bn (US$1.24bn) in 2011 to MAD11.07bn (US$1.28bn) in 2012; +10.6% in local currency terms and +3.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly from Q212, on account of new historical data.
- Healthcare: MAD42.10bn (US$5.20bn) in 2011 to MAD47.01bn (US$5.45bn) in 2012; +11.7% in local currency terms and +4.8% in US dollar terms. Local forecast unchanged from Q212.
- Medical devices: MAD2.19bn (US$270mn) in 2011 to MAD2.46bn (US$285mn) in 2012; +12.6% in local currency terms and +5.6% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast lower from Q212 on account of changed exchange rate expectations.

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Risk/Reward Rating: In Q312's regional Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix, Morocco remains in 11th position out of the 30 countries surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA). The country's composite score also remains unchanged at 47.1 out of 100. Morocco's risk profile remains more favourable than its rewards (which are again below the regional average), despite the roll-out of the social health insurance scheme. Globally speaking, Morocco ranks 56th out of the 95 surveyed.

Key Trends And Developments

- In March 2012, King Mohammed VI of Morocco led a ceremony for the launch the new public healthcare system RAMED. The RAMED system will provide healthcare services in public hospitals and state-owned health services centres to people who are not entitled to mandatory health insurance. The new healthcare system will assist 8.5mn underprivileged people (4mn poor inhabitants and 4.5mn people from the vulnerable population). According to the system, recipients can access basic healthcare services at 2,581 institutions, including 2,030 healthcare centres, 12 regional hospitals and 19 university hospital centres.
- In March 2012, Ranbaxy, an Indian generic drugmaker that was bought by Japanese firm Daiichi Sankyo in 2011, opened a new pharmaceuticals manufacturing facility in Morocco. The factory is the third it has built in Africa. Ranbaxy owns the successful South African manufacturer Sonke, which won a large proportion (US$138mn) of the country's antiretroviral (ARV) pharmaceuticals tender in December 2010. It also owns Ranbaxy Nigeria, which was established in 1987. The Nigerian subsidiary has not enjoyed the same level of success, but still recorded sales of NGN2.96bn (US$18.8mn) in 2010.

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