Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/07/2012 -- The latest Q312 update to BMI's Netherlands Telecoms Report contains analysis of the latest trends and developments in the telecommunications sector, a regional overview and our forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets, as well as for mobile monthly blended ARPU.
One major development covered in the Q312 report is Carlos Slim's interest in America Movil, which issued an offer to take its stake to a maximum of 27.7% in May 2012. On June 21 2012, America Movil announced it had raised its stake to 21%. KPN management advised shareholders to decline the offer and considered strategic options including the divestment of mobile operations in Belgium and Germany.
However, both these options have failed to succeed in time to deter America Movil's interest - although Liberty Global is reportedly still interested in acquiring BASE through its Belgian cable subsidiary Telenet. At the time of writing, it was not clear whether America Movil will succeed in increasing its stake further, but, with KPN's failure to sell or merge E-Plus with Telefonica's German unit, there appears to be little standing in the way of America Movil's strategy.
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Looking at the most recent market data, published by the country's three largest operators, KPN, Vodafone and T-Mobile, for Q112 and regulatory data to the end of September 2011, a net subscriber loss in Q112, following further losses in Q411, means there has been a downward revision to our fiveyear mobile market forecast through to 2016. However, while growth has been slower than expected, our assumptions about the underlying trends impacting the market over the medium term are unchanged and we expect growth dynamics to be unchanged. We expect mobile broadband demand to be the key driver of growth over the medium term.
Our new wireline forecasts incorporate data from Opta, and from leading wireline operators such as KPN, UPC and Zesko Holding (Ziggo), T-Mobile and Tele2. The most recent data from the regulator OPTA for the period to the end of December 2011 show that the Dutch fixed broadband market had more than 6.43mn fixed connections, with a further 1.05mn dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions. The most significant trend was the slowdown in fixed broadband, with a net loss of subscriptions reported in OPTA data for Q411. This was the result of declining DSL subscriptions, while higher speed cable and FTTH technologies continued to grow.
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