Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/05/2014 -- Gas shortages continue to loom in Pakistan as the country awaits the development of required import infrastructure. With struggling production, a limited potential for significant increases in gas production and a lack of import infrastructure, the country will most likely continue to experience severe gas shortages over the near-to-medium term. Large expectations are placed on the March 2013 agreement with Iran on the development of the IP pipeline by 2015. LNG could also become part of the energy mix with two planned fast-track regasification projects, which if constructed, could see first LNG imports in 2015 at the earliest. We believe that LNG imports and the IP pipeline could ease the risk of prolonged energy supply constraints in the long term. However, significant downside risks exist to the completion of these projects The situation is particularly complicated with regards to Iran's global political standing, as sanctions on the country may prevent the timely delivery of badly needed supplies and expertise from Western MNCs. Domestic consumption continues to rise rapidly, boosted by the start-up of additional gas-fired power stations and continued use of condensate natural gas cars. While we do not believe it would render Pakistan gas self-sufficient over the next 10 years, the recent start-up of shale gas exploration creates a large upside risk to our forecast, especially as the EIA now estimates the country could hold as much as 3tcm in shale reserves. Similarly, exploration for shale oil could accelerate as it is now thought that Pakistan sits on nearly 9bn barrels.
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