Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Serbia Freight Transport Report 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/06/2013 -- Following a year which BMI believes saw the slowdown of growth in some, and falling volumes in all other freight modes, 2013 will signal an improvement and growth across all freight modes.
Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 7.2% in 2013 following an estimated growth of 11.6% in 2012.
Rail freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2013. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn but quickly recovered its pre-2009 freight volumes. It will be further boosted by a large number of railway infrastructure upgrades.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.3%
- 2013 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.0%
- 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 1.1%
- 2013 Inland waterway freight throughput is forecast to grow by 6.6%
- 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 7.2%
Key Industry Trends
Loans to Prop Up Serbia's Rail Infrastructure
Large loans have been extended to Serbia to improve its railway infrastructure, with the country's transport minister confirming that the entire amount of the largest - a US$800mn Russian loan - will go towards rail infrastructure upgrades, and that agreements were signed on the implementation of each individual project covered by the loan. The projects covered by the agreement include the construction of new electrified single-track railways; the construction and electrification of additional tracks of the existing railway lines; reconstruction works, including those on the railway line of the European Transport Corridor X; and the supply and delivery of diesel trains.
Jat Privatisation Saga Continues
Serbia has continued its attempts to sell or find an investor for struggling national carrier Jat Airways. In the latest development, the CEO of AirAsia denied any possibility of a Jat takeover. Earlier Serbia's minister of transport proposed keeping the national carrier 'in state hands' after a failure to involve local businessmen in investing in a successor to Jat Airways.
Another Tough Year For Navigation On The Danube
Low water levels of the Danube, freezing winter conditions and workers' protests have continued affecting Serbia's inland waterway freight, which still struggles to recover from sharp decline in 2009.
Risks to Outlook
BMI highlights freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the forecast areas which have moderate risk to the upside as it is these modes of transport which will benefit from the increase of container volumes on the back of a possible strengthening of the consumer base within Serbia. Household expenditure has remained firmly in recessionary territory, and BMI's Country Risk team only expects a gradual recovery in consumer spending.
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