Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/28/2012 -- The Slovakia Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail and Industrial segments throughout the country in the context of a market stymied by regional weakness.
With a focus on the principal cities of Bratislave, Kosice, and Trencin, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of regional dynamics on a market ,which looks set to comparatively outperform its peers. Investor sentiment, the business environment and infrastructure are also explored. Rents for commercial real estate in Slovakia generally rose in H111. Businesses pushed Slovakia's commercial property sector into a recovery in 2010 and this continued in 2011, as vacancy rates fell and supply stood still. Nevertheless, full-year 2011 data reveals that all is not yet rosy with only the industrial segment seeing a positive yearon- year (y-o-y) performance. Key factors for 2012 that will dictate the performance of the sector are the economic situation both regionally and domestically, political stability and the fate of the construction sector.
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- We continue to expect Slovakia's economy to expand by 1.5% in real terms in 2012, with growth largely driven by exports and investment. We expect household consumption to recover marginally, though only towards the end of the year when the effects of fiscal austerity measures wane and the labour market improves.
- Risks of fiscal slippage remain high, particularly given the election of a Smer-SD majority government. While we believe that the Robert Fico-led administration will broadly respect its fiscal commitments to the eurozone, we expect Slovakia to struggle to hit its targets on its current trajectory. We therefore forecast a fiscal deficit of 4.6% of GDP in 2012, before this narrows to 3.3% in 2013.
- We have revised down our real GDP growth projections for 2012 and 2013, which we now forecast at 1.5% and 2.3% respectively. Our revision is predicated on our view for the eurozone to contract in real GDP terms by 0.5%, weighing on Slovak exports.
- Downside Risk To Growth Outlook: Slovakia's heavy dependence on the external sector for its economic growth presents a key downside risk to our forecasts. A significant slowdown in external demand, in particular from Germany, would hit Slovakia's export-led economic recovery.
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