Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Slovenia Infrastructure Report 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/12/2013 -- BMI View: Our outlook for the Slovenian construction sector has changed for the worse as we estimate yet another year of contraction in the sector during 2012, despite more than 35% decline in industry value between 2009 and 2011. Tightness in the banking sector and deepening cuts under the spectre of a full bailout will diminish scope for investment in construction projects in the medium term.
Consequentially, we forecast the Slovenian construction industry value to reach EUR2.53bn (US$3.04bn) through the forecast period, growing by a modest average of 2.3% y-o-y (in real terms) between 2014 and 2021.
The cautious growth in the construction industry will mainly be driven by growth in infrastructure subsector as residential and non-residential building segment is likely to remain depressed. The infrastructure accounted for just over 43% of the total construction industry value during 2011, with the transport infrastructure being considerably ahead of energy in terms of value. Transport is set to increase by a real growth rate of 1.85% y-o-y on average between 2013 and 2021, mostly driven by the developments in the port and airport sub-segments. We also expect energy and utilities to grow by a similar magnitude, primarily on the back the government's commitment to a mix of thermal, nuclear and renewable energy development.
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Following are the key areas of growth in the infrastructure sector:
- Rejuvenating The Transport Sector: The Slovenian port of Koper continues to drive forward its plan to develop into a maritime gateway for Central and Eastern Europe. Port operator International Container Terminal Services Inc (ICTSI) is looking to make the port more attractive to shipping lines, in a project expected cost around EUR15.7mn and be concluded by the end of April 2015. Meanwhile, Aerodrom Ljubljana plans to spend EUR70mn (US$94mn) on constructing a new terminal at its Ljubljana Joze Pucnik Airport in Slovenia. Work is part of a EUR115mn (US$154mn) airport rejuvenation project which will see a new logistics centre open in 2013, with a cargo terminal following in 2015.
- Rushing For New Energy: A new generator at the Sostanj coal-fired power plant and a second reactor at the Krsko Nuclear Power Plant are likely to be the key driver of growth in the Slovenian energy sub-segment in the near future. Slovenia plans to build a new 600 MW unit for the Sostanj lignite power plant (TES6) which would replace the power plant's existing units 1-4 and possibly 5. There are plans to construct a second reactor at Krsko in a project estimated to cost between EUR3.5bn and EUR5bn. Industry participants have however stressed the need for a concrete energy policy without which the development of the energy sector could be hampered.
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