Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/21/2013 -- Our sanguine outlook on the long-term growth of South Korea's agricultural sector is based on the government's decision to gradually remove barriers to trade and move up the value chain. Indeed, the expansion of education and financial support for farmers to allow them entry into the food processing business, as well as plans to revitalise agriculture tourism, will yield results for the industry over the longer term and help it to remain relevant to the South Korean economy. Working out a compensation plan for free-trade-agreement-affected farmers is also integral. We thus view the newly implemented policy to compensate Hanwoo beef and cattle farmers a step in the right direction.

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Key Forecasts

- Beef production growth to 2016/17: 17.6% to 367,000 tonnes. Even with the anticipated increase in beef output, the country will remain reliant on imports to meet demand. Indeed, base effects are the key reason for the significant growth rate.
- Milk production growth to 2016/17: 8.2% to 2.2mn tonnes. This growth is likely to be supported by improved yields per cow and favourable pricing structures for farmers based on a new agreement to raise the average price of raw milk.
- Wheat production growth to 2017: -4.0% to 4.0mn tonnes. This is significantly below the government's objectives. Given that a free trade agreement (FTA) with the US, which came into effect in March 2012, eliminates tariffs on US wheat imports, we believe the government's objective will be even harder to achieve.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$34.0bn in 2013 (down from US$34.3bn in 2012; forecast to decline annually by 3.5% on average to 2017)
- 2013 real GDP growth: 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) (up from 1.9% in 2012; predicted to average 4.1% from 2012 until 2017).
- 2013 consumer price index: 2.7% y-o-y (down from 4.2% in 2012; predicted to average 3.0% to 2017)
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 3.0% (down from 3.25% in 2012; predicted to average 3.4% from 2012 until 2017).

Key Revisions To Forecasts

- 2012/13 pork consumption forecast increased, to 1.63mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 1.58mn tonnes). This is on the back of higher slaughter rates due to an oversupply of hogs.
- 2012/13 milk consumption forecast increased, to 2.04mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 1.92mn tonnes).

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