Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/28/2012 -- BMI's Sudan Defence & Security Report for Q3 2012 examines the strategic position of the Republic of Sudan both in the African region and the context of the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and considers the challenges it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report also looks at the security implications of South Sudanese independence, with the new country having formally split away from Sudan in June 2011.
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The report's general conclusion is that Sudan's security remains extremely fragile, both internally and externally. Conflict with South Sudan in Q212 raised the possibility of a lengthy and bruising war between the two countries. There was even the prospect of the wider East African region becoming involved. Internally, rebel forces opposed to Khartoum have taken the opportunity of conflict with the south to intensify their own operations against the Sudanese government.
Of most concern in Q2 was the conflict surrounding the oil town of Heglig, which was taken and occupied by South Sudanese forces for 10 days in April. The episode demonstrated several important things: first, that South Sudanese forces are capable of matching the Sudanese forces, in spite of the latter's air superiority; and secondly, the economic damage that a conflict would cause. The seizure of Heglig alone slashed Sudan's oil output by 30%; a broader conflict might cripple both countries' economies.
The latest developments in Sudan's troubled Darfur region are also addressed in this report. In particular, the activities of the JEM insurgent group have intensified in recent months, most likely timed to take advantage of Khartoum's confrontation with South Sudan. Major JEM offensives have certainly occurred, with conflicting reports of their success.
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