Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Turkey Power Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/18/2013 -- Our view on Turkey remains largely unchanged this quarter, with a number of developments across segment reinforcing our optimistic outlook for the power industry's growth potential. Despite the fact that several of Turkey's economic challenges - including a significant current account deficit, high cost of credit and high reliance on short-term capital flows to finance the current account deficit - constitute pertinent downside risks, rewards on offer remain highly appealing, particularly when regional prospects are factored in. Recent dynamics have highlighted that a solution to existing energy-related imbalances is cardinal for the country's wider economy, making reforms and new investments in the power sector a top priority for the country.
BMI's view for a sharp decline in economic activity in 2012, owing to both domestic and external factors played out, and our Country Risk analysts now expect domestic demand to stage a modest recovery in 2013 and 2014. With relatively healthy budget and debt dynamics, the government is in a position to provide a more pronounced fiscal boost to the economy if needed, although we expect fiscal discipline to remain high up on the government's agenda, with monetary policy playing a more active role in boosting growth. This picture corroborates our long-held relatively bullish Turkish power market outlook; which had been already reinforced by regional- and country-specific sector dynamics over previous months. When compared to other power markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Turkey emerges as the clear outperformer as macroeconomic and demographic fundamentals support a positive outlook for power consumption, and thus generation. With our forecasts showing an average y-o-y growth of 6.44% in power consumption between 2013 and 2022, substantial investment in new generating capacity will be indispensable, suggesting that rewards on offer in the Turkish market will outweigh the risks. Thus, attracting significant attention not only from traditional European players, but also from an array of newly emerging companies looking to use Turkey as a springboard to penetrate nearby markets and/or display their ability to develop big ticket projects.
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In addition, recent reforms and regulatory changes confirm our view that new investments in the power sector are seen as a top priority for the country:
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