Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/27/2012 -- The Ukraine real estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors in the country in the context of a property sector where the continued recovery is increasingly under threat especially now that the impetus of the FIFA Euro 2012 football tournament has come and gone.

With a focus on the principal cities of Kiev, Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the Euro 2012 'hangover' on a market that was already losing momentum.

On the back of stagnating exports, rising import bills, a crippled banking sector and our expectations for a hryvnia devaluation, we have downgraded our real GDP growth expectation for Ukraine to 2.5% in 2012 (from 4.1%) and 4.2% in 2013 (from 4.7%). While the ongoing global growth slowdown is largely to blame, domestic economic mismanagement by the government is also damaging growth prospects. A weakening global growth picture bodes ill for Ukraine's export-dependent economy and a faltering domestic demand picture underpins our lower growth expectations for 2012, with negative knock-on effects on demand for real estate. Our latest data collection, covering market performance over the first six months of 2012 has inspired little confidence to the contrary with only around 15% of our indicators registering any annualised growth.

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Key Points:

- We believe that Ukraine will ultimately undertake the reforms spelled out under its US$15.2bn Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF, although we believe these are unlikely to occur until after the October 2012 parliamentary election. Continued cooperation with the IMF is crucial to anchoring confidence in Ukraine's economy and underpinning macroeconomic stability.
- We expect the Ukrainian construction industry to suffer from an investment hangover, following a string of projects carried out in preparation for Euro 2012. As such, after a 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in construction industry value in 2012, we expect the industry to return to recession in 2013, with a 0.7% y-o-y contraction anticipated.
- The residential and non-residential construction sector, which accounted for almost 60% of total construction value in 2011 (according to BMI estimates), will prove to be a major disappointment over the coming years as renewed macroeconomic pressures, coupled with a lack of demand from businesses and foreign buyers, weaken the sector's recovery. As such, we forecast annual average real growth of just 1.5% between 2012 and 2021.

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