Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/27/2013 -- We have downgraded our US real GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.1% from 2.3%, due mainly to base effects from late 2012, and the decision to maintain the 'sequester' cuts to federal spending. Our core view on the US economy is that the recovery is becoming increasingly entrenched, and that by 2014 many of the headwinds to growth will be dissipating.

We maintain our view that volumes at US ports face headwinds in the form of sluggish private consumption recovery and slow demand for exports. US private consumption will continue to recover very slowly as a combination of still-high unemployment, ongoing deleveraging, low wage growth and a dependency on government transfers continue to weigh on spending growth. The US export sector is likely to face increasing headwinds from abroad, centred around reduced European demand amid a eurozone recession and potential for dollar strength. Just under one quarter of US exports go to the European Union, and the European crisis is also likely to impact non-eurozone demand for US goods and services.

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Key Industry Data

- At the port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in total tonnage in 2013, to reach 68.6mn tonnes.
- At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 2.1% y-o-y in 2013, to reach 143.3mn tonnes.
- We expect LA to record a contraction of 4.0% in twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) throughput in 2013, falling to 7.7mn TEUs.
- We expect NY/NJ to record a contraction of 2.6% increase in TEU throughput in 2013, to reach 5.4mn TEUs.

Key Industry Trends

Downwards Revision For Savannah, But Remaining Positive

We have revised down our 2013 container throughput growth forecasts for the US East Coast port of Savannah in light of its throughput results for the first four months of the year. However, we are maintaining that growth will be positive over the year, despite the annualised figure indicating that there will be a decline. This is predicated on improving fundamentals at the port and an ameliorating outlook for the US consumer.

Downwards Revision For New Orleans Boxes

We have revised down our container throughput growth forecasts for the US Gulf port of New Orleans for 2013 and over our medium-term outlook period to 2017. The port is facing significant challenges, and, while we do not as yet envisage another fall in box volumes as the port suffered in 2012, the fundamentals no longer support the robust outlook we previously held.

Horizon Posts Another Loss, Announces New Calls

Horizon Lines has posted its Q113 financial results, according to the Journal of Commerce. The company reported a net loss of US$20.1mn, up from a net loss of US$26.8mn a year earlier. Container loads processed fell by 10.1% year-on-year, falling to 57,086, while per-container revenue rose from to US $4,363, from US$4,257.

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